:Product: 0524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
May, 26 May, 27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 537 km/s at 24/0039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13965 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (25 May) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (26 May, 27 May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 078
Predicted   25 May-27 May 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        24 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  005/005-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/20