:Product: 0602RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
02/1757Z from Region 2661 (N06E54). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jun,
04 Jun, 05 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 01/2210Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 01/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/2228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 497 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (03 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (05
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jun 078
Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        02 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  012/015-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20