:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0328Z from Region 2665 (S06W86). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (18 Jul) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (19 Jul) and
expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day
three (20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speeds averaged around 540 km/s. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
16/2211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
17/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 12226 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (18
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    20/05/01
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     20/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 086
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 085/075/075
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  029/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  025/037
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  011/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/30/30