:Product: 0718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/0040Z from old Region 2665 - now around the West limb. There are
currently no numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (19 Jul) and expected to
be very low on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed averaged near 550 km/s. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/0357Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/0055Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 5531 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul)
and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 078
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  023/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  008/008-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/40