:Product: 0725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 705 km/s at 24/2219Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 25/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1031Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 25/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18832 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 070
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul 070/070/071
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  013/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10