:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Aug,
04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 447 km/s at 01/2121Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
02/0318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/1309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2755 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (04 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 074
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug 075/078/078
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  010/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  006/005-017/025-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           05/35/25
Major-severe storm    01/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/80/65