:Product: 0804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 783 km/s at 04/1541Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 04/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 04/0626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 432 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 074
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  024/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  016/020-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/45/25