:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
19/0137Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Aug,
21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 814 km/s at 19/1630Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 19/0624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 19/0709Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8118 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 087
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 088/090/090
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  020/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  023/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  017/022-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/35/25