:Product: 0826RSGA.txt :Issued: 2017 Aug 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2017 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 26/2058Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/1621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10279 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug). III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug Class M 15/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Aug 078 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 076 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 007/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 005/005-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 15/15/15