:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/2203Z from Region 2672 (N08W98). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 02/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/2212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
02/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 12319 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 120
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 120/118/116
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  025/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  007/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/05