:Product: 0909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
09/1104Z from Region 2673 (S09W83). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (10 Sep) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (11 Sep) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (12
Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 847 km/s at 08/2150Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 08/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-3 nT at 08/2105Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 14 pfu at 08/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6358 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (10 Sep, 12 Sep) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (11 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev
have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Sep) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    70/25/01
Class X    35/05/01
Proton     25/15/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 107
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 095/085/083
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  050/117
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15