:Product: 0917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 779 km/s at 17/0251Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 17/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 46263 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Sep, 19 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 072
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  023/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  012/015-011/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/30