:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0234Z from Region 2683 (N12E60). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 25/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Sep), active to
major storm levels on day two (28 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 091
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 091/091/091
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  017/028-024/032-020/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/40/30
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    65/80/60