:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 03/0231Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 03/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/0500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16100 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 086
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 086/086/086
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20