:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 15/0157Z. Total IMF
reached 5 nT at 15/1650Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 15/0006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 59298 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 070
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  026/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  014/018-008/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/30/45