:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (31 Oct) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 328 km/s at 29/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3668 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (01 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 076
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 075/074/073
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  006/005-006/006-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/30