:Product: 1112RSGA.txt :Issued: 2017 Nov 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2017 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 11/2331Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23581 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (15 Nov). III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Nov 069 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 070/073/073 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 006/005-012/015-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/40 Minor Storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/40/35