:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 494 km/s at 27/1404Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
27/1354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/0252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 602 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (29 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three
(30 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 074
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 074/073/072
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  010/010-018/024-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/30
Minor Storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/55/45