:Product: 1217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 17/1531Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 17/1044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 17/0339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 901 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (18 Dec, 19
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 071
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  017/022-014/020-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    55/55/45