:Product: 1219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 633 km/s at 19/0030Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
19/0313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
18/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5787 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Dec, 21 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (22 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 069
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  006/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/30