:Product: 1221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2017 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 428 km/s at 20/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3763 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Dec, 23 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (24 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 076
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    30/25/10