:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 21/2012Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 21/0813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
21/1126Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan,
23 Jan, 24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 068
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  008/010-010/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/20