:Product: 0209RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Feb 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (12 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 08/2113Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/0245Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb). III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb Class M 15/10/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Feb 078 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 15/15/10