:Product: 0424RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Apr 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 23/2315Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15976 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Apr). III. Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Apr 073 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 073/073/072 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 006/005-007/008-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/30 Minor Storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 15/25/30 Major-severe storm 10/20/35