:Product: 0516RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 May 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 15/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15763 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 May), unsettled to active levels on day two (18 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 May). III. Event probabilities 17 May-19 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 May 070 Predicted 17 May-19 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 May 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 013/018-011/014-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/25 Minor Storm 25/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/50/35