:Product: 0621RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Jun 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/0115Z from Region 2715 (N08E06). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 441 km/s at 21/1554Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 206 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jun). III. Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Jun 082 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 082/080/080 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 006/005-006/005-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor Storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 15/10/40