:Product: 0719RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Jul 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 19/1950Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1538Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/1610Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul). III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jul 071 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 012/015-007/008-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/30 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 40/25/35