:Product: 0821RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Aug 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 710 km/s at 20/2106Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9296 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug). III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Aug 068 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 070/070/068 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 015/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 009/010-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 25/20/20