:Product: 1012RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Oct 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 12/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36880 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct). III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Oct 072 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 006/005-010/012-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/20 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 20/30/25