:Product: 1016RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Oct 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 15/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1323 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Oct). III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Oct 070 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-007/008-014/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/35 Minor Storm 01/10/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/35/55