:Product: 1018RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Oct 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 18/0023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1363 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct). III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Oct 070 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 014/018-008/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/20 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 60/40/25