:Product: 1117RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Nov 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s at 17/0158Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/0314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1094 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov). III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Nov 073 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 008/008-009/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/10 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/30/20