:Product: 1219RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Dec 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 19/1349Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/1228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec). III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Dec 070 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 15/15/15