:Product: 1229RSGA.txt :Issued: 2018 Dec 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 28/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2832 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan). III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Dec 069 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 019/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 010/010-009/010-008/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/20