:Product: 0102RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jan 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 02/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 737 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05 Jan). III. Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Jan 075 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/005-010/014-017/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/35 Minor Storm 01/10/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 10/40/65