:Product: 0113RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jan 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 371 km/s at 13/0111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 444 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan). III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jan 069 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-007/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/20/20