:Product: 0116RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jan 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 15/2112Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan). III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jan 070 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10