:Product: 0124RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jan 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 24/1339Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/0151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2110Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan). III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Jan 072 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 017/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 013/018-009/010-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/30/20