:Product: 0125RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jan 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 24/2201Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/0030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1408 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan). III. Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Jan 075 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 009/010-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/20/15