:Product: 0127RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jan 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/1337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/0138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1726 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan). III. Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Jan 074 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 005/005-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 15/15/15