:Product: 0128RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jan 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 28/0041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1386 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (31 Jan). III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan Class M 05/05/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Jan 076 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 075/073/070 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 005/005-007/008-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/30 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 15/15/40