:Product: 0210RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 10/0318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb). III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Feb 070 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 070/071/072 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 006/005-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/20/20