:Product: 0212RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 11/2126Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 442 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb). III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Feb 070 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 008/008-008/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/15 Minor Storm 01/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 25/35/20 Major-severe storm 15/40/15