:Product: 0213RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 13/1412Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 555 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (16 Feb). III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Feb 070 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 009/012-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/15/05 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 35/20/20 Major-severe storm 40/15/10