:Product: 0214RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 14/1119Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1271 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb). III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Feb 071 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 15/10/10