:Product: 0215RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 15/0854Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 983 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb). III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Feb 071 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 20/15/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10