:Product: 0216RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 15/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1541Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 904 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Feb). III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Feb 071 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 006/005-006/005-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 15/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/40