:Product: 0217RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 16/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/1442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1803Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 659 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb). III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Feb 070 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/005-010/012-012/016 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/35 Minor Storm 01/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 10/40/40