:Product: 0219RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 18/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Feb). III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Feb 070 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 009/012-015/016-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/15 Minor Storm 10/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 35/40/20