:Product: 0220RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 20/0513Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/1920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 652 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb). III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Feb 071 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 012/015-010/010-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/15 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/20/10