:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 332 km/s at 20/0513Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
20/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/1920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 652 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 071
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  012/015-010/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/20/10